Thursday, January 18, 2007

Statistically Speaking

Just a note on the climate change debate. I do not know if global warming exists, but I will state that our climate is obviously changing. It is constantly changing. Didn't we learn in science class that the world used to have one continent and that we have gone through many ice ages? Climate change has always occurred.

As for the people who say that we are having the warmest winter EVER! This is not correct. We only have something like 130 years of data on world temperature but the world is billions of years old. So when somebody says that today is the hottest day EVER, you should question them. Because what they are really saying is that today is the hottest day in 130 years. But does this mean anything? 130 years out of a billion years in a VERY small sample and making any assumption from this small sample would not beat any statistical test of significance.

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